Bearish Short-term Outlook Looms as Pullbacks Override the Surges - FastBull (2024)

TRADING

Commodity

Summary:

Today's oscillation range will be 76.0-78.5, and it is better to buy low and sell high.

Fundamentals

During Friday's (June 14th) Asian session, WTI oscillated slightly, and it is now trading at 77.7.

Yesterday, crude oil fell from highs in oscillations. It was strong under speculations, but it plunged rapidly approaching the closing of the session and finally closed lower, confirming that crude oil started to retreat after Wednesday's EIA data showed increased inventories. Crude oil rebounded previously by 7 dollars, so it then needed to consolidate after being overbought. However, the recent performance of oil prices indicates improved sentiment and confirms the phase top. At present, the market is expecting some improvements in supply and demand in the third quarter, even though there is no positive signal of increasing demand in the peak season. Although the production cut will be launched in Q3, the fourth quarter may see overcapacity. Therefore, with the absence of support, we remain bearish on crude oil in the short run.

There is no important datatoday.

Technical Analysis

In the 1H chart, the MACD line crosses above the signal line and forms a golden cross around the 0-axis. As the two lines get closer, we cannot see a clear trend. Before falling below 77.3, crude oil will maintain oscillating.

In the 4H chart, the MACD line crosses below the signal line and the death cross widens, suggesting the release of bearish momentum. Therefore, we should not buy now but try to go short at highs.

In the daily chart, the MACD line crosses below the signal line and the death cross widens along the 0-axis. Since crude oil rebounded by more than 7 dollars and showed a clear sign of being overbought, a retracement is expected. Therefore, we should stop chasing the rise, but try to buy at lows when the price retreats and the overbought conditions improve. Today, our trading range will be 76.0-78.5, in which investors can buy low and sell high.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short

Entry price:78.50

Targetprice:76.00

Stop loss: 79.10

Support:77.00/75.50

Resistance: 78.50/80.00

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Commodity

Summary:

The fluctuation range during the day will be 2,287-2,342, and investors are advised to buy low and sell high.

Fundamentals

During the Asian session on Friday (June 14), spot gold fluctuated downwards and is currently trading around 2,305.

Looking at yesterday's data, the U.S. May PPI monthly rate recorded -0.2%, the largest decline since October 2023. Following the cooling U.S. May CPI, the PPI showed weakness, indicating further moderation in inflation pressures. The latest initial jobless claims rose to 242,000, hitting a new high in 10 months, which indicates increasing signals of a Fed rate cut. However, despite this, the gold prices remain fluctuating downwards, noticeably constrained by the Fed's hawkish management. In the short term, declining inflation and a cooling job market are being overlooked. We believe these are only overshadowed by short-term emotion but will be eventually seen by investors. Gold's long-term bullish momentum is obvious. Following a significant pullback, there is an increased probability of a short-term rebound. It is not recommended to chase shorts excessively but rather to seize opportunities to go long with small positions.

Today's focus should be on the Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan.

Technical Analysis

In the 1H timeframe, the MACD golden cross has occurred below the 0-axis. Yesterday's bearish momentum also seems to be exhausted. We can expect an intraday rebound in the 1H timeframe, with key support in the range of 2,292-2,300 and resistance at 234.

In the 4H timeframe, the MACD line and the signal line are converging without sending strong signals. However, there could be a double bottom in the range of 2,287-2,300. This could lead to intraday stabilization at the bottom and the price will then move higher, and it is not recommended to add short positions in the downtrend.

In the 1D timeframe, the MACD death cross persists near the 0-axis, indicating an overall bearish sentiment. Yesterday, a bearish engulfing candlestick ended the three-day consecutive bullish trend of the week, shifting the market back to a weak mode. However, the technical double-bottom pattern remains noticeable, indicating significant risks for chasing shorts.

For aggressive traders, you can buy low and sell high in the range of 2,287-2,342 today.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 2300

TargetPrice: 2342

Stop Loss: 2295

Support: 2300.000, 2287.000

Resistance: 2325.000, 2342.000

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Forex

Summary:

Right-WingLeading, Where Will EUR Go?

Fundamentals

During Friday's (June 14th) Asian session, EURUSD oscillated in a narrow range, and it is now trading at 1.074.

On June 10th, during the election for the European Parliament, the right-wing party in countries like France and Germany won more votes than the ruling party, showing the internal division in Europe. Then, the EUR plunged by 0.6%, which was worse than expected compared to the situation after the nonfarm payrolls. The latest polls show that the National Rally led by Le Pen is consolidating its advantage, and the new election is more unfavorable to the ruling party. Although the U.S. PPI was worse than expected, the EUR depreciated further below 1.0750, going against the Europe-US interest rate spread. The right-wing advocates clearly that it disagrees with the EU integration and the euro. Now, the mutual aid mechanism between members is facing challenges, and the Eurozone may suffer from economic impacts under trade protection. However, the right wing supports a beneficial economic policy, that is to minimize unnecessary costs. In particular, the Eurozone has to get rid of the impact of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Once the conflict ends, the euro will be supported. In the near term, there are oversold signals for the EUR, which may boost a rebound soon. Nevertheless, the long-term economic and political risks increase.

Today's focus: Further progress in the European Parliament elections.

Technical Analysis

In the 1H chart, the MACD line crosses below the signal line, but a golden cross is likely to occur later. Yesterday, after the release of the bearish momentum, EURUSD lost the previous gains but still stayed in the oscillating range of 1.07-1.09. Now, we need to see if EURUSD can stay above 1.07. In the Asian session, EURUSD will oscillate at lows, and it is expected to rebound in the evening session. The most important level is the 60-day SMA.

In the 4H chart, the MACD line crosses below the signal line and forms a death cross. As the gap is not widening, EURUSD is stable after several dips. In addition, EURUSD will move horizontally for more momentum, and there is a need for a rebound after being oversold.

In the daily chart, EURUSD turned weak after closing lower with a bearish piercing pattern. The switch between bull and bear candles indicated the oscillating situation. As the MACD line crosses below the signal line, the death cross widens, and EURUSD is suppressed under the 60-day SMA, the weak trend will be maintained.

It is recommended to buy low and sell high in the range of 1.070-1.090.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Long

Entry price:1.0700

Targetprice:1.0900

Stop loss: 1.0650

Support:1.0700/1.0650

Resistance:1.0850/1.0900

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Central BankForex

Summary:

Despite Australia's unemployment rate dropping from 4.1% in April to 4.0% last month, the USD's recovery after the FOMC's seventh consecutive decision to keep the benchmark rate in the 5.25%-5.50% range has pressured the AUD.

Fundamentals

Australia's unemployment rate fell to 4% in May, with employment numbers continuing to rise, highlighting the labor market's resilience to rising interest rates. However, due to the US dollar regaining ground, the Australian dollar failed to gain any support from the Australian employment data changes and has been on a downward trend.

Bjorn Jarvis, head of labor statistics at the Australian Bureau of Statistics, stated, "In April we saw more unemployed people than usual waiting to start work. Some of the fall in unemployment and rise in employment in May reflects these people starting or returning to their jobs."

Market Outlook: The Australian employment data released earlier today is unlikely to alter the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) decision-making. Strong job creation has been a positive signal for the RBA, which is looking to achieve a "narrow path" for a soft landing as the labor market gradually loosens due to increased labor supply. We expect the RBA to hold steady as anticipated next week but remain hawkish, as it is more concerned about persistently high inflation rather than weak economic growth. As inflation continues to rise, keeping interest rates at high levels could continue to support the Australian dollar.

Technical Analysis

AUDUSD broke through the 0.6700 level on Wednesday, gaining 1.35%. Despite not extending its gains within the day, the daily chart structure has turned into a fully bullish mode, as momentum indicators suggest further upside potential. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slightly above the 50 level reinforces this bullish bias.

A decisive break above the 0.6714 resistance will confirm a higher base since the rise from 0.6580 and extend towards the next targets at the 0.6750 and 0.6800 psychological levels.

On the other hand, any downside movement is expected to be limited, providing better levels for re-entering the bullish market. However, a drop below 0.6550 could trigger bearish warnings.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 0.6620

Target Price: 0.6800

Stop Loss: 0.6550

Valid Until: 2024-06 - 28 23:55:00

Support: 0.6676, 0.6636, 0.6616, 0.6580

Resistance: 0.6714, 0.6728, 0.6750, 0.6800

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

EconomicForex

Summary:

After a bearish trend in the European session, GBPUSD edged slightly higher to the 1.2800 level following weaker-than-expected US Producer Price Index (PPI) for May. The US dollar struggled to find demand, thus stabilizing the pair.

Fundamentals

During the European session on Thursday, GBPUSD broke below the key support level at 1.2800. Previously, the asset had risen to near a three-month high of around 1.2860 after Wednesday's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report came in below expectations.

The US PPI for May declined unexpectedly, marking the largest drop in seven months, further indicating easing inflation pressures. The dollar's lack of demand contributed to the pair's stability. According to data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday, PPI fell 0.2% month-on-month in May, compared to an unrevised increase of 0.5% in April. On a year-on-year basis, PPI rose 2.2% in May following a 2.3% increase in April.

Prior to the PPI report, earlier CPI data for May had also shown a general cooling in the economy. Fed officials have maintained the benchmark interest rate at its highest level in over 20 years since July last year.

The PPI data allows investors to optimistically speculate that the Fed may start cutting rates in September this year, with two rate cuts expected by the end of the year. The Fed's dot plot released on Wednesday indicated they anticipate only one rate cut this year, contingent on further inflation developments.

Technical Analysis

With easing US inflation, the market widely anticipates the Fed to maintain policy stability. Investors are also focusing on the Bank of England's policy meeting next week, where the bank may keep rates unchanged for the seventh consecutive time.

The improving daily structure supports recent trends in a bullish configuration since breaking through the 1.2800 level yesterday. Despite intraday pullbacks, strong buying interest is expected to continue supporting the uptrend, targeting resistance at 1.2892. A decisive breakthrough of this resistance would strengthen the argument that the correction from 1.3141 has concluded, potentially leading to further rebounds to retest this high.

Overall, as long as the price remains above the 20-day SMA at 1.2735, the upward trend is expected to persist, while a drop below the dynamic inflection point at 1.2650 would maintain a neutral trend.

Trading Recommendations

Trading Direction: Long

Entry Price: 1.2745

Target Price: 1.2900

Stop Loss: 1.2640

Valid Until: 2024-06 - 27 23:55:00

Support: 1.2759, 1.2738, 1.2705

Resistance: 1.2816, 1.2862, 1.2892

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

Duetoproactivepositionadjustmentinthemarketaheadofamajorkeyevent,thebullsfailedtosustaintheirrally;however,ifthe50-daySMAcansupportthedownwardmomentum,itwillonceagaintestthethresholdofUS$70,000.

Fundamentals

Thecryptocurrencymarketcapitalizationhasonceagaindroppedby0.9%inthepast24hours,fallingtoUS$2.44trillion,expandingthedeclinefromFriday'speakto8%.(Thisislikelyattributedtoproactiverebalancingbythemarketaheadofsignificantkeyevents.)SincethecloseonTuesday,marketvolatilityhasnotablydecreasedasmoretradersadoptawait-and-seeapproachaheadoftheinflationreportandFOMCmeetingresults.

Meanwhile,thestreakofcapitalinflowsintotheBitcoinspotETFfor19consecutivedayshascometoanend.OnJune10,BTCETFsawanetoutflowofUS$64.9million.Cumulatively,aroundUS$4billionhasflowedintotheBitcoinspotETFduringthelongestinflowtrend,withatotalofUS$15.62billionininflowssincetheapprovaloftheseinstrumentsinJanuary.

TechnicalAnalysis

Technically,duetothemarketbeinginoverboughtconditions,therecentdeclinesinthepriceofBitcoinonJune8and11wereinlinewithexpectations.However,thepricefoundsupportatthe50-daySMA,preventingfurthersell-offs.Ifthislevelcancontinuetoholdinfuturetrading,andriskappetitereturnstothemarket,thebullsmaynotonlyretestthepsychologicalresistancelevelofUS$70,000butalsopotentiallytestUS$73,000.Ontheotherhand,breakingbelowthe50-daySMAwouldbringthemarketbackintothedemandzoneofaroundUS$61,780.

Overall,despiteBitcoinspotETFreachingatwo-monthhighdrivenbydevelopmentsinspecificsectors,itsupwardmomentumseemstohavestalledintheshortterm.Therefore,giventhecurrentscenario,bothbullishandbearishmarketspresenttradingopportunities.

TradingRecommendations

TradingDirection:Long

EntryPrice:66600

TargetPrice:73049

Stop Loss: 64350

Deadline: 2024-06 - 28 23:55:00

Support:67588,66610,65915

Resistance:68977,69577,70208

Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.